试验序贯分析简介_《中国循证医学杂志》

作者：

王权 ^1,2 , 田金徽 ¹ , 李伦 ^1,2 , 何曦冉 ³ , 时春虎 ¹ ,  杨克虎 ^1,2

1. 兰州大学基础医学院循证医学中心（兰州 730000）；2. 兰州大学第一临床医学院（兰州 730000）；3. 北京大学临床肿瘤学院（北京 100142）;

关键词：

试验序贯分析累积Meta分析方法学

DOI：

10.7507/1672-2531.20130216

视频：

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摘要 全文 图表 视频 参考文献 施引文献 补充材料

试验序贯分析（trial sequential analysis，TSA）作为累积Meta分析的一种，其主要是将序贯分析方法引入传统的Meta分析，以解决传统Meta分析在反复更新中出现的随机误差（假阳性/假阴性的结果）问题，同时也能计算得出某一个确切的结论所需要的样本量。本文通过参阅世界范围内已发表的文献，着重总结介绍TSA方法的提出、基本原理、应用软件以及当前的局限，同时依据具体的实例来说明TSA的优势，以期吸引更多研究者关注，进而促进我国Meta分析方法学的发展。

引用本文： 王权,田金徽,李伦,何曦冉,时春虎,杨克虎. 试验序贯分析简介. 中国循证医学杂志, 2013, 13(10): 1265-1268. doi: 10.7507/1672-2531.20130216 复制

1.	杨克虎. 循证医学. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2007:.
2.	Borm GF, Donders A. Updating meta-analyses leads to larger type I errors than publication bias. J Clin Epidemiol, 2009, 62: 825.
3.	Brok J, Thorlund K, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(8): 763-769.
4.	Pereira TV, Ioannidis J. Statistically significant meta-analyses of clinical trials have modest credibility and inflated effects. J Clin Epidemiol, 2011, 64(10): 1060-1069.
5.	Pogue JM, Yusuf S. Cumulating evidence from randomized trials: utilizing sequential monitoring boundaries for cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1997, 18(6): 580-593.
6.	Thorlund K, Devereaux P, Wetterslev J, et al. Can trial sequential monitoring boundaries reduce spurious inferences from meta-analyses? Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 276-286.
7.	Trikalinos TA, Churchill R, Ferri M, et al. Effect sizes in cumulative meta-analyses of mental health randomized trials evolved over time. J Clin Epidemiol, 2004, 57(11): 1124-1130.
8.	Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
9.	Thorlund K, Imberger G, Walsh M, et al. The number of patients and events required to limit the risk of overestimation of intervention effects in meta-analysis- a simulation study. PLoS One, 2011, 6(10): e25491.
10.	Higgins JSG. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions, version 5.1.0. Updated March 2011. The Cochrane Collaboration, 2011. In Edition.
11.	Thorlund K, Engstrøm J, Wetterslev J, et al. User manual for trial sequential analysis (TSA). Copenhagen Trial Unit. Available from: http://wwwctudk/tsa/files/tsa_manualpdf. Accessed 2011.
12.	刘树贤. 临床流行病学(六）——序贯试验. 疑难病杂志, 2004, 3(4): 253-255.
13.	何清坡, 苏炳华. 成组序贯试验的原理和方法. 现代预防医学, 1999, 26(3): 310-312.
14.	余松林. 随机临床试验中的成组序贯设计与期中分析方法. 中国临床药理学与治疗学杂志, 1998, 3: 206-206.
15.	Demets DL, Lan K. Interim analysis: the alpha spending function approach. Stat Med, 1994, 13(13-14): 1341-1352.
16.	Higgins J, Whitehead A, Simmonds M. Sequential methods for random-effects meta-analysis. Stat Med, 2011, 30(9): 903-921.
17.	Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2009, 9: 86.
18.	王权, 何曦冉, 田金徽, 等. 艾迪联合紫杉醇和顺铂治疗晚期非小细胞肺癌的 Meta 分析. 中国肺癌杂志, 2010, 13(11): 1027-1034.
19.	Wetterslev J, Engstrøm J, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis: methods and software for cumulative meta-analyses. Cochrane Methods, 2012, 14: 29-35.

1. 杨克虎. 循证医学. 北京: 人民卫生出版社, 2007:.
2. Borm GF, Donders A. Updating meta-analyses leads to larger type I errors than publication bias. J Clin Epidemiol, 2009, 62: 825.
3. Brok J, Thorlund K, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis reveals insufficient information size and potentially false positive results in many meta-analyses. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(8): 763-769.
4. Pereira TV, Ioannidis J. Statistically significant meta-analyses of clinical trials have modest credibility and inflated effects. J Clin Epidemiol, 2011, 64(10): 1060-1069.
5. Pogue JM, Yusuf S. Cumulating evidence from randomized trials: utilizing sequential monitoring boundaries for cumulative meta-analysis. Control Clin Trials, 1997, 18(6): 580-593.
6. Thorlund K, Devereaux P, Wetterslev J, et al. Can trial sequential monitoring boundaries reduce spurious inferences from meta-analyses? Int J Epidemiol, 2009, 38(1): 276-286.
7. Trikalinos TA, Churchill R, Ferri M, et al. Effect sizes in cumulative meta-analyses of mental health randomized trials evolved over time. J Clin Epidemiol, 2004, 57(11): 1124-1130.
8. Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Trial sequential analysis may establish when firm evidence is reached in cumulative meta-analysis. J Clin Epidemiol, 2008, 61(1): 64-75.
9. Thorlund K, Imberger G, Walsh M, et al. The number of patients and events required to limit the risk of overestimation of intervention effects in meta-analysis- a simulation study. PLoS One, 2011, 6(10): e25491.
10. Higgins JSG. Cochrane handbook for systematic reviews of interventions, version 5.1.0. Updated March 2011. The Cochrane Collaboration, 2011. In Edition.
11. Thorlund K, Engstrøm J, Wetterslev J, et al. User manual for trial sequential analysis (TSA). Copenhagen Trial Unit. Available from: http://wwwctudk/tsa/files/tsa_manualpdf. Accessed 2011.
12. 刘树贤. 临床流行病学(六）——序贯试验. 疑难病杂志, 2004, 3(4): 253-255.
13. 何清坡, 苏炳华. 成组序贯试验的原理和方法. 现代预防医学, 1999, 26(3): 310-312.
14. 余松林. 随机临床试验中的成组序贯设计与期中分析方法. 中国临床药理学与治疗学杂志, 1998, 3: 206-206.
15. Demets DL, Lan K. Interim analysis: the alpha spending function approach. Stat Med, 1994, 13(13-14): 1341-1352.
16. Higgins J, Whitehead A, Simmonds M. Sequential methods for random-effects meta-analysis. Stat Med, 2011, 30(9): 903-921.
17. Wetterslev J, Thorlund K, Brok J, et al. Estimating required information size by quantifying diversity in random-effects model meta-analyses. BMC Med Res Methodol, 2009, 9: 86.
18. 王权, 何曦冉, 田金徽, 等. 艾迪联合紫杉醇和顺铂治疗晚期非小细胞肺癌的 Meta 分析. 中国肺癌杂志, 2010, 13(11): 1027-1034.
19. Wetterslev J, Engstrøm J, Gluud C, et al. Trial sequential analysis: methods and software for cumulative meta-analyses. Cochrane Methods, 2012, 14: 29-35.

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《中国循证医学杂志》

试验序贯分析简介

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《中国循证医学杂志》

试验序贯分析简介

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